Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the shared socioeconomic pathways

Abstract Income distributions are a growing area of interest in the examination equity impacts brought on by climate change and its responses. Such especially important at subnational levels, but projections income these levels scarce. Here, we project U.S. state-level for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply non-parametric approach, specifically recently developed principal components algorithm to generate net deciles across 50 states District Columbia (DC). produce 2100 three SSP scenarios combination with varying GDP per capita represent wide range possible futures uncertainties. In generation scenarios, also generated tax adjusted historical states, which used validating model performance. Our method thus produces decile each state, reflecting variability state income, population, regimes. can be both emissions- impact-related research understand distributional effects various identify economically vulnerable populations.